A meandering blog with no clear topic. You will find me talking about knitting, building, kids, social and economic issues, Alaska, and lots of other stuff.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

North Slope oil declines

Back in July 2007, I looked at the production declines in North Slope oil. At that time, it appeared that production was declining at about 9% per year. Oil production for fiscal year 2007, which ended on June 30, 2007, averaged about 738,000 barrels per day. If oil continued to decline at about 9%, then in fiscal year 2010, which ended on June 30, 2010, oil production would be about 556,000 barrels per day. The most recent figure available on the state website today was for the month of May. In May, there was 19.2 million barrels produced, which is about 619,000 barrels per day. That isn't an average for the fiscal year, so it isn't an exact comparison, but I think it works for an estimate. So it may be that oil production is only declining at a hair over 6% per year, which gives us about 3 or 4 extra years to figure out what to do when there isn't enough pressure to keep the pipeline going.
The good news is that local politicians are starting to talk about it. I am pretty fed up with politicians of all stripes, but they are the only ones that can make the necessary plans on a statewide level. I don't know if an extra 3 or 4 years is enough time, but we will see. This is crucially important, since 89% of the state's revenue comes from oil royalties.
The bad news is that it doesn't seem to be on very many people's radar yet. How can people prepare for changes if they don't know the changes are coming?

2 comments:

Aonika and Richard said...

So, sweetie - what do you think of Alex Jones, and infowars.com - or have you ever gone to Prisonplanet.com? Maybe they don't want you to be prepared... I honestly don't feel like the government is looking out for the people - I think that they are looking out for themselves. But that's just me. Thanks for the heads up... what happens in your neck of the woods eventually filters down to my neck of the woods. MISS YOU. A

Loris mom said...

Most people won't prepare for anything that is more than a few days away. Even if they where told This is your last permananet fund dividend, they would still spend the whole thing, thinking that something would change in a year.